HOW WINE’S POWER MAP IS CHANGING?

France remains one of wine’s symbolic homes, but the global wine business no longer turns on one country, one style or one drinking culture. In a category shaped by climate volatility, moderation, younger consumers and changing import routes, the most powerful wine nations are not always the most dynamic ones.

Wine has always carried geography in the glass. However, the latest figures suggest a more complex map than the familiar triangle of France, Italy and Spain. In 2024, global wine production fell to 225.8 million hectolitres, its lowest level in more than 60 years, while global consumption declined to 214.2 million hectolitres. International trade, meanwhile, stayed relatively resilient in value, reaching €35.9 billion despite export volumes remaining at their lowest level since 2010.

A smaller harvest, but not a smaller story

The world’s biggest wine producers still sit largely in Europe. Italy, France and Spain remain central, but their roles are diverging. Italy has shown particular commercial strength. In 2024, it was the world’s largest wine exporter by volume, shipping 21.7 million hectolitres and generating €8.1 billion in export value. Its recovery was driven notably by sparkling wine, especially Prosecco, with export volumes up 12% and value up 9%.

Spain tells another story. It remained the second-largest exporter by volume in 2024, but export volumes dropped to 20 million hectolitres, their lowest level in a decade. The fall was largely linked to bulk wine, which still represents more than half of Spanish export volumes. France, by contrast, exported less by volume than Italy or Spain, at 12.8 million hectolitres, but remained the highest-value exporter, with €11.7 billion in export revenue.

This split between volume, value and momentum is becoming more important for alcoholic beverages exhibitors looking beyond heritage alone. A high-production country may be under pressure. A lower-volume country may be premiumising. A mature market may be shrinking in litres but still valuable in price, distribution and brand influence.

The New World is adapting under pressure

Outside Europe, the wine map is equally uneven. The United States remained the world’s fourth-largest producer in 2024, but production fell to 21.1 million hectolitres, 17.2% below 2023. This decline is linked to extreme heat, inventory pressure and California’s smallest grape harvest since 2004.

Australia and Chile, often seen as export-led wine powers, illustrate a different rhythm. Australia produced 10.2 million hectolitres of wine in 2024, up from the very low 2023. It remains a major producer, with a broad offer ranging from accessible bottled wines to premium regional labels from areas such as Barossa Valley, Margaret River, McLaren Vale and Yarra Valley. China has returned as a crucial market since the removal of heavy duties on Australian bottled wine in 2024, giving exporters an important route back into Asia. India, by comparison, is still small, but tariff reductions under the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement give Australian producers another long-term opportunity at a time when mature wine markets are under pressure

Chile produced 9.3 million hectolitres in 2024, its lowest output since 2010, but export volumes rose 14.4% to 7.8 million hectolitres, with value up 6.1% to €1.5 billion. The country’s appeal lies partly in consistency. Chile has long been associated with reliable, good-value varietal wines, particularly Cabernet Sauvignon, Sauvignon Blanc and Carménère, while Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot Noir and red blends also play an important role in export portfolios. Its geography gives producers a broad palette, from cooler coastal areas suited to fresh whites and Pinot Noir to warmer inland valleys known for structured reds. For importers and retailers, Chile offers recognisable grape varieties, competitive pricing and improving premium credentials, making it attractive at a time when consumers are more selective but still looking for quality. Its sustainability positioning also strengthens its export story, with the Chilean Wine Sustainability Code helping producers build credibility in markets where environmental standards are increasingly part of buyer expectations

Production is no longer the only indicator of dynamism. Export recovery, category mix, bottled versus bulk formats and market access now matter just as much. Climate disruption is also forcing producers to think more carefully about varietals, sourcing, irrigation, pricing and stock management. The OIV’s first estimates for 2025 put world wine production at around 232 million hectolitres, up 3% on 2024 but still 7% below the five-year average, confirming that lower availability is becoming a structural issue rather than a one-off shock.

Consumption is moving, fragmenting and ageing

China deserves particular attention because it has moved from growth engine to cautionary tale. Its wine consumption fell by 19.3% in 2024 to 5.5 million hectolitres, continuing a decline that began in 2018. Part of this shift reflects the weakening of the corporate gifting and banquet culture that once supported premium imported wine, especially as anti-corruption measures, tighter official hospitality rules and a more cautious economic climate reduced ostentatious spending. Covid-era restrictions also disrupted restaurant, hotel and business occasions, while younger consumers have increasingly moved towards beer, spirits, cocktails, low-alcohol drinks and more casual formats.

India sits at the opposite end of the curve. It is not yet a major global wine importer, but it is becoming more closely watched because the conditions around the market are changing. Rising urban incomes, a younger drinking-age population, more international travel, expanding hotel and restaurant channels and the growth of premium retail are all helping wine move gradually beyond a niche audience. Recent import data cited by Meininger’s International showed Indian wine imports at between 5.65 million and 7 million litres in the latest available 12-month period, depending on methodology, with volume growth of around 24% to 26%. The market remains tiny in global terms, but its direction is attracting attention, particularly as wine begins to benefit from more formal distribution, stronger consumer education and greater visibility in metropolitan markets.

Lighter, sparkling and no-low reshape the shelf

The most dynamic wine markets are not only geographic. They are stylistic. Sparkling wine remains a powerful part of international trade, representing 10.9% of global export volume and 23.8% of export value in 2024. Even with a small volume decline, its value share shows why sparkling continues to attract producers, retailers and buyers.

The no-low movement in particular, is no longer only a beer or spirits story. IWSR projected a 9% volume gain for no-alcohol products in 2025 and a 36% expansion in no-alcohol volumes by 2029. Wine alternatives, sparkling tea, fermented adult drinks and low-ABV sparkling wines are increasingly competing for the same social occasions as traditional wine.

For food industry trade shows, the lesson is clear enough without being simple. Wine is still rooted in terroir, appellation and tradition, but its commercial future is being shaped by climate resilience, export agility, lighter drinking occasions, premium value and emerging markets that start small before they matter.

This is where the SIAL Network can play a useful role for the broader beverage and food community. Across markets including Sial Paris and other international editions in China, India, Canada and Southeast Asia, wine sits within a wider conversation about taste, lifestyle, retail, gastronomy and innovation. The world’s biggest producers will remain important, but the next chapter of wine may be written just as much by the countries, consumers and formats gaining momentum around them.

Image credits:

Polina Kovaliva - Pexels

Boudewijn Boer - Unsplash

Aleisha Kalina - Unsplash